Young voters could be one of the key voting blocs in this year’s elections, said Harvard professor.
Thomas Patterson, the Bradlee professor of government and the press at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, presented recent polling data and analyzed how different demographics could vote in this election at a talk on Oct. 8 at NE Campus.
Patterson pointed out the generational gap in politics and a recent trend of young voters leaning toward the Democratic party.
“That, to me, is the ticking time bomb for the Republicans,” he said. “Unless they can figure out how to crack the young voters, you can’t keep doing this election after election. Because if your voters are the older voters, I’m sorry, but they’re not going to live forever.”
Patterson said young voters will be one of the keys to victory in November, just like they were in the last election when they voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden.
Other voting blocs also show changes since the last election in recent polls, Patterson said.
The white vote has not been held by the Democratic Party since 1964. Workingclass whites have generally voted Republican, but in 2016, college-educated whites voted more for Democrats than Republicans for the first time.
Women have also leaned toward the Democratic Party, with the Vice President Kamala Harris leading by 11% among women compared to for President Donald Trump’s 17% lead among men.
The Black and Hispanic vote for Democrats has dropped 9% and 11% since the last election and both groups are shifting to the Republican Party.
“Historically, these [votes] been very important and they’re the margins that allow Democrats to win elections,” Patterson said.
Patterson also pointed out the division of votes among rural, suburban and city residents. Harris currently leads both cities and suburbs, with rural votes being overwhelmingly for Trump.
Patterson also spoke about the Electoral College and which states could decide the election.
While most states either decidedly lean Democratic or Republican, swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are less predictable. Harris is projected to gain seven more electoral votes than Trump, according to CNN’s Road to 270 Interactive, but 93 votes are still a toss-up.
At the end of the talk, Patterson repeated his question to the audience from the beginning of his presentation — who did they think were going to win the election? Many of the audience did not change their minds and raised their hands for the same candidate. Some were now uncertain.
During the Q&A session, NE student Chelsea Scott asked Patterson about misinformation in the news and media from both sides.
Scott had attended the talk in the hopes of learning more about the topic. Scott said she liked Patterson’s unbiased presentation and analyzation of polling data.
“He was giving the facts for both sides and all kind of groups of people,” Scott said. “And I liked that he was able to give all of the information proving those things that he was saying.”
Assistant professor of English Toni Whalen said it was interesting to see how both parties have tried to engage with young voters, especially student voters.
“I think college students are always kind of a wild card in elections,” Whalen said. “If you can motivate young people to get out and vote, they can make a big difference in an election.”
